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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd