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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and recent also-rans rising together. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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